Monday, 27 June 2016

The Rise of the Moderates

I voted to Remain

I voted to remain in the EU Referendum. I am a firm believer in the idea that together the EU, as a group of countries, has a strong global economic voice and that the union has allowed a shattered post-war continent to rebuild. Like most outside the political system, I was disappointed but not necessarily shocked by the referendum result. It has been impossible to ignore the recent growing disparity of wealth across Europe as a whole. A political system which only favours the elite and turns its back on the people the system was designed to help is bound to be on a collision course with disaster. Thank goodness this was only a bloody vote and not a bloody revolution.
In the UK it has been increasingly clear the huge wealth generated by the capital has not led to the regeneration of the post-industrial north or the rural south and east and frustrating to see a political ideology not addressing this but instead pushing austerity to the limits of social tolerance. In less than a generation we have shifted home ownership and job/pension security beyond the reach of the majority and seem to be in the process of removing state education and access to national healthcare. That this EU referendum became about giving the political system a bloody nose shows the level of disconnect between politics and the people. It is a sentiment Brussels should not ignore.

Partisan European Politics

'Is it time 2 automate global political treaties in order 2 remove partisan human response & compute best rational outcomes 4 next generation'

I was surprised to see the extraordinarily partisan approach of the EU commission in trying to force our government to trigger article 50 as a response to the Brexit vote. We are the fifth largest economy in the world and the second largest in the EU. This is an economic union we have decided, democratically as a country, not to be working in our favour and, as such, our government will be expected to carefully and with the full co-operation of the EU over the next few years, follow the legal frameworks laid out for an exit. It will be a complex set of negotiations to find the best result for all concerned, to limit trade damage and to make sure Europe will still benefit from having the fifth largest economy on its doorstep. It is not a quickie divorce.

New day, new European alliances...

'What new #EuroGlobal forum will the UK build as the EU looks as though it will ignore this referendum warning for reform & who will join us?'

After the PM's resignation and a weekend of political vacuum in which the Chancellor was nowhere to be seen, no clear successor anointed, the opposition staging a slow coup, Scotland, Northern Ireland and London talking of breaking up the UK, we were all left wondering who will step up and say... well anything...

Two trillion and counting...

Interestingly the #Brexit vote has effectively wiped out some of the trillions pumped in by quantitative easing measures across the global stock markets. Will a moderate rise in interest rates and a flattening of excesses between currencies help to curb excessive gambles and start to even out a volatile market ?

The rise of the Moderates

One thing for sure, this vote and the campaigns preceding it, have been divisive, negative and laid bare the political infighting and intrigue of party politics where winning, whatever the cost, is the goal. Yet it seems, if you read the press we are now all going to be losers, with a punitive budget, despite the Bank of England having planned for this event with several billion stashed up its sleeve. What is increasingly clear is the probable need for another election as the face of both the main political parties is moved radically beyond what was voted for only a year ago.


I hope the rise of a more moderate approach within the EU will be the ultimate outcome of Britain's exit. You have only to look at the treatment of Greece and the plight of the refugees to see how very unbalanced and inward-looking the system has become. I hope moderate views prevail in the UK too and the individual nations can see the break up of the UK was not what people were voting for last Thursday. And I hope America takes a good, long hard look at its own Union of States and realises, in the cold light of a Monday morning just what could be at stake with its own, very partisan election. 

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